**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have created a tight contest between a full pause through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings and scenarios involving at least one 25-basis-point hike.** June and July meetings held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent amid solid growth, stable unemployment near 4.1–4.2 percent, and productivity gains, but headline PCE inflation climbed to 3.7 percent and core to 3.4 percent, fueled by energy shocks and Middle East supply disruptions. Updated dot plots now show a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, with nine officials projecting a hike. Trader-implied odds near 50-50 reflect uncertainty over whether August–September data will confirm persistent price pressures sufficient for a September tightening or allow the Committee to extend its pause, with the next decision just days away.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,698 交易量
$842,698 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,698 交易量
$842,698 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,471 交易量
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 交易量
1%
Other
$359,857 交易量
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have created a tight contest between a full pause through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings and scenarios involving at least one 25-basis-point hike.**
June and July meetings held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent amid solid growth, stable unemployment near 4.1–4.2 percent, and productivity gains, but headline PCE inflation climbed to 3.7 percent and core to 3.4 percent, fueled by energy shocks and Middle East supply disruptions. Updated dot plots now show a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, with nine officials projecting a hike. Trader-implied odds near 50-50 reflect uncertainty over whether August–September data will confirm persistent price pressures sufficient for a September tightening or allow the Committee to extend its pause, with the next decision just days away.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$842,698結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have created a tight contest between a full pause through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings and scenarios involving at least one 25-basis-point hike.**
June and July meetings held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent amid solid growth, stable unemployment near 4.1–4.2 percent, and productivity gains, but headline PCE inflation climbed to 3.7 percent and core to 3.4 percent, fueled by energy shocks and Middle East supply disruptions. Updated dot plots now show a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, with nine officials projecting a hike. Trader-implied odds near 50-50 reflect uncertainty over whether August–September data will confirm persistent price pressures sufficient for a September tightening or allow the Committee to extend its pause, with the next decision just days away.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$842,698結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET**Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have created a tight contest between a full pause through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings and scenarios involving at least one 25-basis-point hike.** June and July meetings held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent amid solid growth, stable unemployment near 4.1–4.2 percent, and productivity gains, but headline PCE inflation climbed to 3.7 percent and core to 3.4 percent, fueled by energy shocks and Middle East supply disruptions. Updated dot plots now show a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, with nine officials projecting a hike. Trader-implied odds near 50-50 reflect uncertainty over whether August–September data will confirm persistent price pressures sufficient for a September tightening or allow the Committee to extend its pause, with the next decision just days away.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions