Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate decision have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 near 4.25%. Policymakers raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled a high likelihood of one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, upside risks from energy prices tied to geopolitical developments, and resilient growth with unemployment around 4.1%. The updated dot plot shows a median endpoint of 4.1% for 2026 and 2027, shifting consensus higher than June forecasts. Market pricing reflects these hawkish revisions, with limited probability assigned to cuts or rates below 4.0% absent clear disinflation or labor-market weakening before December.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
4,25% 53.4%
≥ 4,5% 29.7%
4,0% 13.8%
3,75% 3.0%
$6,889,162 KL.
$6,889,162 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
<1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,75%
<1%
3,0%
<1%
3,25%
<1%
3,5%
2%
3,75%
3%
4,0%
14%
4,25%
53%
≥ 4,5%
30%
4,25% 53.4%
≥ 4,5% 29.7%
4,0% 13.8%
3,75% 3.0%
$6,889,162 KL.
$6,889,162 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
$257,483 KL.
<1%
1,25
$153,681 KL.
<1%
1,5%
$151,449 KL.
<1%
1,75%
$153,819 KL.
<1%
2,0%
$269,412 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$93,225 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$179,954 KL.
<1%
2,75%
$70,083 KL.
<1%
3,0%
$500,311 KL.
<1%
3,25%
$85,419 KL.
<1%
3,5%
$206,199 KL.
2%
3,75%
$538,730 KL.
3%
4,0%
$1,373,683 KL.
14%
4,25%
$441,467 KL.
53%
≥ 4,5%
$2,414,247 KL.
30%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate decision have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 near 4.25%. Policymakers raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled a high likelihood of one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, upside risks from energy prices tied to geopolitical developments, and resilient growth with unemployment around 4.1%. The updated dot plot shows a median endpoint of 4.1% for 2026 and 2027, shifting consensus higher than June forecasts. Market pricing reflects these hawkish revisions, with limited probability assigned to cuts or rates below 4.0% absent clear disinflation or labor-market weakening before December.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,889,162Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate decision have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 near 4.25%. Policymakers raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled a high likelihood of one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, upside risks from energy prices tied to geopolitical developments, and resilient growth with unemployment around 4.1%. The updated dot plot shows a median endpoint of 4.1% for 2026 and 2027, shifting consensus higher than June forecasts. Market pricing reflects these hawkish revisions, with limited probability assigned to cuts or rates below 4.0% absent clear disinflation or labor-market weakening before December.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,889,162Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate decision have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 near 4.25%. Policymakers raised the target range to 3.75%-4.00% and signaled a high likelihood of one additional 25-basis-point hike before year-end, citing elevated PCE inflation near 3.7%, upside risks from energy prices tied to geopolitical developments, and resilient growth with unemployment around 4.1%. The updated dot plot shows a median endpoint of 4.1% for 2026 and 2027, shifting consensus higher than June forecasts. Market pricing reflects these hawkish revisions, with limited probability assigned to cuts or rates below 4.0% absent clear disinflation or labor-market weakening before December.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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