The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to the 3.75-4.00% range, paired with updated projections showing a 4.1% median year-end rate, anchors the elevated odds for another hike in 2026. Sixteen of 18 participants now project at least one additional quarter-point move before year-end, reflecting upside risks to inflation that officials see as more persistent than prior supply-driven factors. Recent data on resilient GDP growth near 2.3%, a stable unemployment rate around 4.1%, and core PCE inflation near 3.4% support the shift toward tighter policy under Chair Warsh. Futures markets currently embed roughly 80-90% odds of at least one further increase by December, consistent with the dot plot's hawkish tilt. Key near-term catalysts include October and December FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI and employment reports that could alter the pace of any additional tightening.