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icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

icon for Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Політика·Тарифи Fed

Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?

4,25% 55.8%

≥ 4,5% 29.3%

4,0% 13.8%

3,75% 3.6%

Polymarket

$6,888,765 Обс.

4,25% 55.8%

≥ 4,5% 29.3%

4,0% 13.8%

3,75% 3.6%

Polymarket

$6,888,765 Обс.

≤1,0%

$257,452 Обс.

<1%

1,25

$153,672 Обс.

<1%

1,5%

$151,449 Обс.

<1%

1,75%

$153,812 Обс.

<1%

2,0%

$269,410 Обс.

<1%

2,25%

$93,225 Обс.

<1%

2,5%

$179,954 Обс.

<1%

2,75%

$70,083 Обс.

<1%

3,0%

$500,181 Обс.

<1%

3,25%

$85,419 Обс.

<1%

3,5%

$206,199 Обс.

2%

3,75%

$538,512 Обс.

4%

4,0%

$1,373,683 Обс.

14%

4,25%

$441,467 Обс.

56%

≥ 4,5%

$2,414,247 Обс.

29%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026.** On September 16, the Committee raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent and shifted its median dot-plot projection for year-end 2026 to 4.1 percent, implying one more hike. Updated economic forecasts showed higher PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, solid GDP growth of 2.3 percent, and a lower unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, with inflation risks skewed to the upside. These developments, amid resilient domestic spending and lingering geopolitical uncertainties, have concentrated implied probabilities on a 4.25 percent terminal rate, while lower-rate outcomes remain discounted absent clear disinflation progress before year-end.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,888,765
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).**Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026.** On September 16, the Committee raised the target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent and shifted its median dot-plot projection for year-end 2026 to 4.1 percent, implying one more hike. Updated economic forecasts showed higher PCE inflation at 3.7 percent for 2026, solid GDP growth of 2.3 percent, and a lower unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, with inflation risks skewed to the upside. These developments, amid resilient domestic spending and lingering geopolitical uncertainties, have concentrated implied probabilities on a 4.25 percent terminal rate, while lower-rate outcomes remain discounted absent clear disinflation progress before year-end.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,888,765
Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...

Пов'язане

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

55%
icon for Чи досягне верхня межа ставки ФРС 4,25% або вище до 2027 року?

Чи досягне верхня межа ставки ФРС 4,25% або вище до 2027 року?

76%
Так

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 15 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «4,25%» з 56%, далі «≥ 4,5%» з 29%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» згенерував $6.9 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 12, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?», перегляньте 15 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» — «4,25%» з 56%. Наступний — «≥ 4,5%» з 29%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.