**Elevated but stabilizing inflation pressures and a high real policy rate underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting.** Headline CPI stood at 6.2% year-over-year in August 2026, well above the 2–4% target band, with expectations anchored near 6.6% for year-end amid minimum-wage indexation, energy costs, and lingering El Niño effects. The benchmark rate has held at 12% since mid-2026 following earlier hikes, producing a sizable positive real rate that analysts view as sufficiently restrictive. Recent surveys show consensus for stability through December, with limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction given mixed growth signals and contained domestic demand. The October decision, following the late-September gathering, will hinge on fresh CPI prints and any shifts in inflation expectations or fiscal developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 77%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 5.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
12%
50+ bps increase
6%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 12%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 5.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$323 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,013 Обс.
7%
No change
$2,570 Обс.
77%
25 bps increase
$584 Обс.
12%
50+ bps increase
$906 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated but stabilizing inflation pressures and a high real policy rate underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting.** Headline CPI stood at 6.2% year-over-year in August 2026, well above the 2–4% target band, with expectations anchored near 6.6% for year-end amid minimum-wage indexation, energy costs, and lingering El Niño effects. The benchmark rate has held at 12% since mid-2026 following earlier hikes, producing a sizable positive real rate that analysts view as sufficiently restrictive. Recent surveys show consensus for stability through December, with limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction given mixed growth signals and contained domestic demand. The October decision, following the late-September gathering, will hinge on fresh CPI prints and any shifts in inflation expectations or fiscal developments.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Обсяг
$5,395Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Elevated but stabilizing inflation pressures and a high real policy rate underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting.** Headline CPI stood at 6.2% year-over-year in August 2026, well above the 2–4% target band, with expectations anchored near 6.6% for year-end amid minimum-wage indexation, energy costs, and lingering El Niño effects. The benchmark rate has held at 12% since mid-2026 following earlier hikes, producing a sizable positive real rate that analysts view as sufficiently restrictive. Recent surveys show consensus for stability through December, with limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction given mixed growth signals and contained domestic demand. The October decision, following the late-September gathering, will hinge on fresh CPI prints and any shifts in inflation expectations or fiscal developments.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5,395Дата завершення
Oct 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated but stabilizing inflation pressures and a high real policy rate underpin the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the Banco de la República’s October meeting.** Headline CPI stood at 6.2% year-over-year in August 2026, well above the 2–4% target band, with expectations anchored near 6.6% for year-end amid minimum-wage indexation, energy costs, and lingering El Niño effects. The benchmark rate has held at 12% since mid-2026 following earlier hikes, producing a sizable positive real rate that analysts view as sufficiently restrictive. Recent surveys show consensus for stability through December, with limited scope for a 25-basis-point move in either direction given mixed growth signals and contained domestic demand. The October decision, following the late-September gathering, will hinge on fresh CPI prints and any shifts in inflation expectations or fiscal developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПов'язане
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?
57%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?
63%
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?
53%
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання