Roger Marshall holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including double-digit margins for the party's presidential nominee in recent cycles, combined with his status as a first-term incumbent who secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August primary. Adam Hamilton's 19% share reflects his emergence as the Democratic nominee after winning a crowded August primary with 34.9% and strong early fundraising, yet analysts rate the contest "likely Republican" following those primaries. Limited recent polling shows Marshall ahead by low-single to mid-single digits, consistent with Kansas's structural barriers for Democrats seeking a Senate seat last won in 1932. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$46,467 ปริมาณ
$46,467 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
19%
$46,467 ปริมาณ
$46,467 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$30,174 ปริมาณ
81%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$16,293 ปริมาณ
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Roger Marshall holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including double-digit margins for the party's presidential nominee in recent cycles, combined with his status as a first-term incumbent who secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August primary. Adam Hamilton's 19% share reflects his emergence as the Democratic nominee after winning a crowded August primary with 34.9% and strong early fundraising, yet analysts rate the contest "likely Republican" following those primaries. Limited recent polling shows Marshall ahead by low-single to mid-single digits, consistent with Kansas's structural barriers for Democrats seeking a Senate seat last won in 1932. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$46,467วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Roger Marshall holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including double-digit margins for the party's presidential nominee in recent cycles, combined with his status as a first-term incumbent who secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August primary. Adam Hamilton's 19% share reflects his emergence as the Democratic nominee after winning a crowded August primary with 34.9% and strong early fundraising, yet analysts rate the contest "likely Republican" following those primaries. Limited recent polling shows Marshall ahead by low-single to mid-single digits, consistent with Kansas's structural barriers for Democrats seeking a Senate seat last won in 1932. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$46,467วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Roger Marshall holds an 80.5% implied probability in the Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican lean, including double-digit margins for the party's presidential nominee in recent cycles, combined with his status as a first-term incumbent who secured the GOP nomination with nearly 80% in the August primary. Adam Hamilton's 19% share reflects his emergence as the Democratic nominee after winning a crowded August primary with 34.9% and strong early fundraising, yet analysts rate the contest "likely Republican" following those primaries. Limited recent polling shows Marshall ahead by low-single to mid-single digits, consistent with Kansas's structural barriers for Democrats seeking a Senate seat last won in 1932. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย