Recent September core CPI data, which rose 0.3% month-over-month against expectations of 0.2% and lifted the year-over-year rate to 2.6%, has anchored trader positioning for the October reading. Broad-based firmness in shelter costs, supercore services, and core goods—amid elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions—has tempered expectations for an immediate moderation. With the closely matched 35.5% and 34.5% implied probabilities on 0.2% versus 0.3%, markets reflect uncertainty over whether pass-through effects will persist or ease. The October FOMC meeting and November 10 release will provide key signals on whether underlying inflation momentum aligns with the Fed's tightening path or shows signs of reacceleration.