Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAR-02 House Election Winner
AR-02 House Election Winner
$12,244 ปริมาณ
$12,244 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
French Hill (R)
87%
Chris Jones (D)
14%
$12,244 ปริมาณ
$12,244 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
French Hill (R)
$4,224 ปริมาณ
87%
Chris Jones (D)
$8,020 ปริมาณ
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,244วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$12,244วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill holds an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s R+8 partisan lean, his status as chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million compared with Democrat Chris Jones’s roughly $1.2 million. Both candidates secured their nominations in the March 2026 primaries by wide margins. A single August Hendrix College poll showing Jones ahead 48-44% prompted the DCCC to label the seat competitive and drew an endorsement from Kamala Harris focused on cost-of-living concerns, yet forecasters continue to rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican. Traders appear to weigh these short-term signals against the district’s underlying Republican tilt and Hill’s incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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