Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВ какой компании лучший агент искусственного интеллекта на конец октября?
В какой компании лучший агент искусственного интеллекта на конец октября?
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 14%
Meta 1.6%
Google <1%
$31,169 Объем
$31,169 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Anthropic
85%
OpenAI
14%
Meta
2%
1%
Alibaba
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 85%
OpenAI 14%
Meta 1.6%
Google <1%
$31,169 Объем
$31,169 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$16,156 Объем
85%
OpenAI
$4,240 Объем
14%
Meta
$1,133 Объем
2%
$1,001 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$796 Объем
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,172 Объем
1%
Moonshot
$865 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$464 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$808 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$509 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$372 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$511 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$497 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$335 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$660 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$675 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$509 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$31,169Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$31,169Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an overwhelming 83.5% market-implied probability of leading in AI agent performance by end of October, reflecting trader consensus on its recent strides in tool-use frameworks and autonomous task execution via Claude models. OpenAI trails at 16%, with all other labs under 2%, as competitive positioning favors Anthropic's edge in reliable multi-step reasoning and integration with external environments over rivals' offerings. Key factors include demonstrated capabilities in agent benchmarks, where precision and safety features reduce errors in complex workflows, alongside the broader industry shift toward practical AI agents rather than chat-focused systems. Resolution will likely hinge on verifiable benchmarks or expert evaluations released in the coming weeks, with any new model updates or capability demos serving as potential swing events before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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