Anthropic's accelerated IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and recent shift to a late-September prospectus with mid-October marketing, have driven the 96.4% market-implied probability it will list before OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting a potential $2 trillion valuation and a Nasdaq debut before November midterms, supported by major banks and a $15 billion credit facility. In contrast, OpenAI's June filing has not translated into an active timeline, with its CFO signaling a likely 2027 debut tied to $1 trillion valuation goals amid market caution after other large tech floats. While this consensus reflects verified progress, last-minute regulatory reviews, valuation resets, or unexpected shifts in OpenAI's strategy could still alter the outcome before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAnthropic
96% вероятность
$338,517 Объем
$338,517 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
Anthropic
96% вероятность
$338,517 Объем
$338,517 Объем
30 дек. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's accelerated IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and recent shift to a late-September prospectus with mid-October marketing, have driven the 96.4% market-implied probability it will list before OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting a potential $2 trillion valuation and a Nasdaq debut before November midterms, supported by major banks and a $15 billion credit facility. In contrast, OpenAI's June filing has not translated into an active timeline, with its CFO signaling a likely 2027 debut tied to $1 trillion valuation goals amid market caution after other large tech floats. While this consensus reflects verified progress, last-minute regulatory reviews, valuation resets, or unexpected shifts in OpenAI's strategy could still alter the outcome before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Объем
$338,517Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's accelerated IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and recent shift to a late-September prospectus with mid-October marketing, have driven the 96.4% market-implied probability it will list before OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting a potential $2 trillion valuation and a Nasdaq debut before November midterms, supported by major banks and a $15 billion credit facility. In contrast, OpenAI's June filing has not translated into an active timeline, with its CFO signaling a likely 2027 debut tied to $1 trillion valuation goals amid market caution after other large tech floats. While this consensus reflects verified progress, last-minute regulatory reviews, valuation resets, or unexpected shifts in OpenAI's strategy could still alter the outcome before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$338,517Дата окончания
31 дек. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's accelerated IPO preparations, including its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and recent shift to a late-September prospectus with mid-October marketing, have driven the 96.4% market-implied probability it will list before OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting a potential $2 trillion valuation and a Nasdaq debut before November midterms, supported by major banks and a $15 billion credit facility. In contrast, OpenAI's June filing has not translated into an active timeline, with its CFO signaling a likely 2027 debut tied to $1 trillion valuation goals amid market caution after other large tech floats. While this consensus reflects verified progress, last-minute regulatory reviews, valuation resets, or unexpected shifts in OpenAI's strategy could still alter the outcome before year-end resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Состоится ли первичное публичное размещение акций Anthropic в октябре 2026 года (ET)?
59%
Да
Anthropic или OpenAI: какая компания завершит IPO с большей рыночной капитализацией?
68%
Anthropic
Будет ли рыночная капитализация Anthropic составлять 600 млрд долларов США или больше к моменту закрытия рынка в день IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года?
96%
Да
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