Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported measurable gains in AI-assisted research and development without claiming fully autonomous recursive self-improvement (RSI). Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed its Claude models leading 26% of internal R&D tasks and authoring over 80% of merged production code, while OpenAI’s September 6 announcement confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone capable of multi-day tasks under human direction. On September 22, OpenAI explicitly stated that fully autonomous RSI is not occurring today and should not be pursued until safety and human control can be assured, while reiterating its March 2028 target for a complete automated AI researcher. These disclosures, alongside competitive pressure and calls for global standards, frame current trader sentiment around incremental automation rather than imminent breakthrough announcements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
OpenAI или Anthropic объявляют о рекурсивном самосовершенствовании на...?
НОВОЕ
31 окт. 2026 г.
31 октября 2026 года
7%
31 декабря 2026 года
14%
$4,232 Объем
31 октября 2026 года
$2,301 Объем
7%
31 декабря 2026 года
$1,930 Объем
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported measurable gains in AI-assisted research and development without claiming fully autonomous recursive self-improvement (RSI). Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed its Claude models leading 26% of internal R&D tasks and authoring over 80% of merged production code, while OpenAI’s September 6 announcement confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone capable of multi-day tasks under human direction. On September 22, OpenAI explicitly stated that fully autonomous RSI is not occurring today and should not be pursued until safety and human control can be assured, while reiterating its March 2028 target for a complete automated AI researcher. These disclosures, alongside competitive pressure and calls for global standards, frame current trader sentiment around incremental automation rather than imminent breakthrough announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ET
Объем
$4,232Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported measurable gains in AI-assisted research and development without claiming fully autonomous recursive self-improvement (RSI). Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed its Claude models leading 26% of internal R&D tasks and authoring over 80% of merged production code, while OpenAI’s September 6 announcement confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone capable of multi-day tasks under human direction. On September 22, OpenAI explicitly stated that fully autonomous RSI is not occurring today and should not be pursued until safety and human control can be assured, while reiterating its March 2028 target for a complete automated AI researcher. These disclosures, alongside competitive pressure and calls for global standards, frame current trader sentiment around incremental automation rather than imminent breakthrough announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,232Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 18, 2026, 7:59 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Both OpenAI and Anthropic have reported measurable gains in AI-assisted research and development without claiming fully autonomous recursive self-improvement (RSI). Anthropic’s June 2026 report showed its Claude models leading 26% of internal R&D tasks and authoring over 80% of merged production code, while OpenAI’s September 6 announcement confirmed an “automated research intern” milestone capable of multi-day tasks under human direction. On September 22, OpenAI explicitly stated that fully autonomous RSI is not occurring today and should not be pursued until safety and human control can be assured, while reiterating its March 2028 target for a complete automated AI researcher. These disclosures, alongside competitive pressure and calls for global standards, frame current trader sentiment around incremental automation rather than imminent breakthrough announcements.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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