Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model drive the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July amid internal performance shortfalls, particularly in coding benchmarks, and remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on DeepMind's site. Google has instead shipped lighter variants including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models in early-to-mid September while confirming training has begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh this pattern of cautious flagship pacing, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, and absence of imminent catalysts as the core factors sustaining the current odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСледующая модель Google Gemini Pro выпущена...?
Следующая модель Google Gemini Pro выпущена...?
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября 88%
24 сентября 3.4%
30 сентября 3.3%
22 сентября 3.1%
$102,942 Объем
$102,942 Объем
17 сент. 2026 г.
17 сентября
2%
18 сентября
<1%
19 сентября
1%
20 сентября
1%
21 сентября
2%
22 сентября
3%
23 сентября
3%
24 сентября
3%
25 сентября
1%
26 сентября
<1%
27 сентября
1%
28 сентября
<1%
29 сентября
2%
30 сентября
3%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября
88%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября 88%
24 сентября 3.4%
30 сентября 3.3%
22 сентября 3.1%
$102,942 Объем
$102,942 Объем
17 сент. 2026 г.
17 сентября
$572 Объем
2%
18 сентября
$310 Объем
<1%
19 сентября
$307 Объем
1%
20 сентября
$307 Объем
1%
21 сентября
$537 Объем
2%
22 сентября
$584 Объем
3%
23 сентября
$469 Объем
3%
24 сентября
$594 Объем
3%
25 сентября
$303 Объем
1%
26 сентября
$305 Объем
<1%
27 сентября
$307 Объем
1%
28 сентября
$508 Объем
<1%
29 сентября
$384 Объем
2%
30 сентября
$849 Объем
3%
Нет выпуска до 30 сентября
$87,819 Объем
88%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model drive the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July amid internal performance shortfalls, particularly in coding benchmarks, and remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on DeepMind's site. Google has instead shipped lighter variants including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models in early-to-mid September while confirming training has begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh this pattern of cautious flagship pacing, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, and absence of imminent catalysts as the core factors sustaining the current odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Объем
$102,942Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model drive the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July amid internal performance shortfalls, particularly in coding benchmarks, and remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on DeepMind's site. Google has instead shipped lighter variants including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models in early-to-mid September while confirming training has begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh this pattern of cautious flagship pacing, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, and absence of imminent catalysts as the core factors sustaining the current odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$102,942Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model drive the 87.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model slipped to July amid internal performance shortfalls, particularly in coding benchmarks, and remains in partner testing with a "coming soon" status on DeepMind's site. Google has instead shipped lighter variants including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live models in early-to-mid September while confirming training has begun on the next-generation Gemini 4. Traders weigh this pattern of cautious flagship pacing, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic, and absence of imminent catalysts as the core factors sustaining the current odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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