The Acre Senate race for second place stays tightly balanced among Marcio Bittar, Mara Rocha, Gladson Cameli, and Jorge Viana because multiple surveys through late August show their consolidated support clustered within margins of error. Each elector selects two names under the plurality block voting system, which amplifies small shifts in first- and second-preference tallies and keeps second-place probabilities fluid. Recent polling from Quaest and others highlights name recognition, party coalitions, and regional voting patterns as sustaining technical ties, while Cameli’s resignation from the governorship and the mid-August start of official campaigning have not yet produced durable separation. Traders price the outcome as contested because late alliance adjustments or turnout variations among key blocs could readily reorder the final ranking before October 4.