Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4, 2026, Senate election at 75.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling trends that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União) while ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Carlos Fávaro (PSD), and Pedro Taques (PSB). Multiple surveys through early September, including Paraná Pesquisas and MT Dados, show Mendes consolidating first-place support above 45% in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with Riva holding steady near 30% and the next tier trailing further back. Riva’s August convention launch within a PL-MDB coalition, her record as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president, and focus on health, education, and women’s issues have supported her positioning. High undecided rates above 30-50% in recent polls leave room for late movement, though no major shifts have altered the established ordering in the final weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJanaina Riva 76%
Mauro Mendes 18%
Jose Medeiros 5.6%
Pedro Taques 2.6%
$23,410 Vol.
$23,410 Vol.
Janaina Riva
76%
Mauro Mendes
18%
Jose Medeiros
6%
Pedro Taques
3%
Fávaro
2%
Margareth Buzetti
1%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
<1%
Coronel Darwin
<1%
Galvan
<1%
Beny Godoy
<1%
Janaina Riva 76%
Mauro Mendes 18%
Jose Medeiros 5.6%
Pedro Taques 2.6%
$23,410 Vol.
$23,410 Vol.
Janaina Riva
76%
Mauro Mendes
18%
Jose Medeiros
6%
Pedro Taques
3%
Fávaro
2%
Margareth Buzetti
1%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
<1%
Coronel Darwin
<1%
Galvan
<1%
Beny Godoy
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4, 2026, Senate election at 75.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling trends that place her behind frontrunner Mauro Mendes (União) while ahead of José Medeiros (PL), Carlos Fávaro (PSD), and Pedro Taques (PSB). Multiple surveys through early September, including Paraná Pesquisas and MT Dados, show Mendes consolidating first-place support above 45% in consolidated first-and-second vote scenarios, with Riva holding steady near 30% and the next tier trailing further back. Riva’s August convention launch within a PL-MDB coalition, her record as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president, and focus on health, education, and women’s issues have supported her positioning. High undecided rates above 30-50% in recent polls leave room for late movement, though no major shifts have altered the established ordering in the final weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Capitão Contar ganhará a segunda maior votação na eleição para o Senado de Mato Grosso do Sul em 2026?
Mauro Mendes ganhará a maioria dos votos na eleição para o Senado de Mato Grosso em 2026?
Reinaldo Azambuja receberá o maior número de votos na eleição para o Senado de Mato Grosso do Sul em 2026?
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions