Lula holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's first-round presidential voting, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the clear alternative and all other listed candidates at negligible implied probabilities. Recent state-level polling from early September shows the two frontrunners statistically tied, with Lula at 34% and Flavio at 32%, reflecting the president's incumbency advantages, regional appeal through social programs and Amazon-related policies, and consolidation of left-leaning voters. Flavio draws opposition support tied to the prior administration's base but registers higher rejection rates. The fragmented field leaves minimal room for alternatives such as Augusto Cury, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Romeu Zema. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders appear to weigh Lula's structural edge in northern states more heavily than the tight local surveys.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLula 64%
Flavio Bolsonaro 37%
Hertz Dias <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$18,427 Vol.
$18,427 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
64%
Flavio Bolsonaro
37%
Hertz Dias
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 64%
Flavio Bolsonaro 37%
Hertz Dias <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
$18,427 Vol.
$18,427 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
$4,195 Vol.
64%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,440 Vol.
37%
Hertz Dias
$1,219 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$1,006 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,438 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$990 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$996 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$737 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$808 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$1,051 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$767 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$735 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's first-round presidential voting, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the clear alternative and all other listed candidates at negligible implied probabilities. Recent state-level polling from early September shows the two frontrunners statistically tied, with Lula at 34% and Flavio at 32%, reflecting the president's incumbency advantages, regional appeal through social programs and Amazon-related policies, and consolidation of left-leaning voters. Flavio draws opposition support tied to the prior administration's base but registers higher rejection rates. The fragmented field leaves minimal room for alternatives such as Augusto Cury, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Romeu Zema. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders appear to weigh Lula's structural edge in northern states more heavily than the tight local surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$18,427Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's first-round presidential voting, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the clear alternative and all other listed candidates at negligible implied probabilities. Recent state-level polling from early September shows the two frontrunners statistically tied, with Lula at 34% and Flavio at 32%, reflecting the president's incumbency advantages, regional appeal through social programs and Amazon-related policies, and consolidation of left-leaning voters. Flavio draws opposition support tied to the prior administration's base but registers higher rejection rates. The fragmented field leaves minimal room for alternatives such as Augusto Cury, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Romeu Zema. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders appear to weigh Lula's structural edge in northern states more heavily than the tight local surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$18,427Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the lead in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's first-round presidential voting, with Flavio Bolsonaro as the clear alternative and all other listed candidates at negligible implied probabilities. Recent state-level polling from early September shows the two frontrunners statistically tied, with Lula at 34% and Flavio at 32%, reflecting the president's incumbency advantages, regional appeal through social programs and Amazon-related policies, and consolidation of left-leaning voters. Flavio draws opposition support tied to the prior administration's base but registers higher rejection rates. The fragmented field leaves minimal room for alternatives such as Augusto Cury, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Romeu Zema. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders appear to weigh Lula's structural edge in northern states more heavily than the tight local surveys.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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