**Recent polling in Amapá's October 4 Senate race shows Rayssa Furlan holding a clear lead for one seat, while Lucas Barreto and Randolfe Rodrigues remain locked in a tight contest for second place.** Multiple surveys from August and early September place Barreto and Randolfe within or near the margin of error of each other behind Furlan, with Barreto often edging slightly ahead in second-vote scenarios but no decisive separation emerging. Incumbency advantages for both sitting senators, combined with overlapping party coalitions and regional voter priorities in the small electorate, have sustained this balance. Furlan's strong performance tied to her husband's gubernatorial lead has not yet translated into a clear shift away from either contender for the remaining spot. With roughly two weeks until voting, further campaign events or turnout patterns among key blocs could still influence final positioning without altering the current trader consensus on a closely contested outcome.