Recent polling from mid-September shows a tight contest for Alagoas’s second Senate seat, with Renan Calheiros (MDB) leading first-preference votes at around 30% while Marina JHC (PSDB), Arthur Lira (PP), and Davi Davino Filho (Republicanos) cluster within the margin of error in consolidated totals near 17–22%. The race remains fluid because voters select two names, producing distinct first- and second-choice patterns that fragment support among the top contenders. Shared coalitions, such as the “Alagoas Gigante II” grouping Lira and Marina, and longstanding regional rivalries between the Calheiros and Lira families further complicate vote splitting. With the October 4 election only weeks away, final turnout, last-minute alliances, and any shifts in undecided voters (currently 7%) could determine which candidate secures the second-highest total. Trader consensus prices reflect this narrow gap, assigning Lira the highest implied probability for second place while keeping several outcomes competitive.