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icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima
Política·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima
Política·Brasil

Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima

Arthur Henrique 94%

Soldado Sampaio 2.9%

Farah Mesquita 1.9%

Rosi Aires <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Arthur Henrique 94%

Soldado Sampaio 2.9%

Farah Mesquita 1.9%

Rosi Aires <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Arthur Henrique

Arthur Henrique

$4,794 Vol.

94%

icon for Soldado Sampaio

Soldado Sampaio

$183 Vol.

3%

icon for Farah Mesquita

Farah Mesquita

$153 Vol.

2%

icon for Rosi Aires

Rosi Aires

$227 Vol.

1%

icon for Clébio Genuíno

Clébio Genuíno

$318 Vol.

<1%

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling averages near 60% in September surveys, building on his 60.87% share in the June 2026 special election. As former Boa Vista mayor with strong name recognition and PL backing, he benefits from voter familiarity ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent data from AtlasIntel, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show him well ahead of interim governor Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) and minor candidates including Rosi Aires, Farah Mesquita, and Clébio Genuíno. His candidacy status has advanced to deferido, reducing prior legal uncertainty over desincompatibilização timing. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these trends, though a late legal reversal or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before ballots close.

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,676
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Arthur Henrique (PL) holds a commanding lead in the Roraima gubernatorial race due to consistent polling averages near 60% in September surveys, building on his 60.87% share in the June 2026 special election. As former Boa Vista mayor with strong name recognition and PL backing, he benefits from voter familiarity ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent data from AtlasIntel, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show him well ahead of interim governor Soldado Sampaio (Republicanos) and minor candidates including Rosi Aires, Farah Mesquita, and Clébio Genuíno. His candidacy status has advanced to deferido, reducing prior legal uncertainty over desincompatibilização timing. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these trends, though a late legal reversal or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before ballots close.

The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Roraima gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,676
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:38 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Arthur Henrique" at 94%, followed by "Soldado Sampaio" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima" is "Arthur Henrique" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Soldado Sampaio" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador de Roraima" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.