Elevated global energy prices stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict have pushed UK CPI inflation to 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.6% in June, with the Bank of England projecting a peak near 3.2% in Q4 amid pass-through effects. This underpins the tight contest between the 3.5–3.9% bucket at 27.4% implied probability and the 2.0–2.4% range at 24.6%, as traders weigh persistent second-round wage and price pressures against economic slack and fading base effects. NIESR forecasts place the 2026 annual average at 3.1%, while forward curves price limited further BoE tightening from the current 3.75% Bank Rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI release and the next MPC decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.0–2.4% 24.6%
2.5–2.9% 11.5%
4.5%+ 8%
$91,241 Wol.
$91,241 Wol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
3%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
2%
4.5%+
8%
3.5–3.9% 27.4%
2.0–2.4% 24.6%
2.5–2.9% 11.5%
4.5%+ 8%
$91,241 Wol.
$91,241 Wol.
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–1.4%
3%
1.5–1.9%
5%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.0–3.4%
-
3.5–3.9%
27%
4.0-4.4%
2%
4.5%+
8%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated global energy prices stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict have pushed UK CPI inflation to 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.6% in June, with the Bank of England projecting a peak near 3.2% in Q4 amid pass-through effects. This underpins the tight contest between the 3.5–3.9% bucket at 27.4% implied probability and the 2.0–2.4% range at 24.6%, as traders weigh persistent second-round wage and price pressures against economic slack and fading base effects. NIESR forecasts place the 2026 annual average at 3.1%, while forward curves price limited further BoE tightening from the current 3.75% Bank Rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September CPI release and the next MPC decision.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano



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