**Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting.** August 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while year-over-year wage growth cooled to 3.1%; contemporaneous CPI readings showed headline inflation near 3.4% and core near 2.5%, supported by energy and services components amid geopolitical tensions. These conditions have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher terminal-rate projections around 3.8% by late 2026, with recent communications and dot plots signaling limited scope for easing before mid-2027. Market-implied odds of 60.5% for no change and 23.5% for a 25-basis-point hike reflect this consensus, tempered by uncertainty ahead of the September CPI release and FOMC decision that could shift the near-term policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in January?
Fed Decision in January?
No change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$68,368 Wol.
$68,368 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$68,368 Wol.
$68,368 Wol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,744 Wol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$14,301 Wol.
14%
No change
$20,220 Wol.
61%
25 bps increase
$16,643 Wol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$3,461 Wol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting.** August 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while year-over-year wage growth cooled to 3.1%; contemporaneous CPI readings showed headline inflation near 3.4% and core near 2.5%, supported by energy and services components amid geopolitical tensions. These conditions have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher terminal-rate projections around 3.8% by late 2026, with recent communications and dot plots signaling limited scope for easing before mid-2027. Market-implied odds of 60.5% for no change and 23.5% for a 25-basis-point hike reflect this consensus, tempered by uncertainty ahead of the September CPI release and FOMC decision that could shift the near-term policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$68,368Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting.** August 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while year-over-year wage growth cooled to 3.1%; contemporaneous CPI readings showed headline inflation near 3.4% and core near 2.5%, supported by energy and services components amid geopolitical tensions. These conditions have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher terminal-rate projections around 3.8% by late 2026, with recent communications and dot plots signaling limited scope for easing before mid-2027. Market-implied odds of 60.5% for no change and 23.5% for a 25-basis-point hike reflect this consensus, tempered by uncertainty ahead of the September CPI release and FOMC decision that could shift the near-term policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$68,368Data zakończenia
Jan 27, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 26-27, 2027 FOMC meeting.** August 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, while year-over-year wage growth cooled to 3.1%; contemporaneous CPI readings showed headline inflation near 3.4% and core near 2.5%, supported by energy and services components amid geopolitical tensions. These conditions have reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance and higher terminal-rate projections around 3.8% by late 2026, with recent communications and dot plots signaling limited scope for easing before mid-2027. Market-implied odds of 60.5% for no change and 23.5% for a 25-basis-point hike reflect this consensus, tempered by uncertainty ahead of the September CPI release and FOMC decision that could shift the near-term policy path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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