Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly gain and core at 2.4% have reinforced concerns over persistent price pressures, supporting the 37.5% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting while a hold holds the lead at 61.5%. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment has further tempered expectations for easing, though the September 15-16 decision and any associated guidance will shape the near-term path. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in limited room for cuts or aggressive moves, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market ahead of the midterms.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 62%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,853,007 Wol.
$1,853,007 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
62%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 62%
25 bps increase 38%
25 bps decrease 2.1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$1,853,007 Wol.
$1,853,007 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$308,768 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$628,752 Wol.
2%
No change
$305,858 Wol.
62%
25 bps increase
$403,369 Wol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$206,259 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly gain and core at 2.4% have reinforced concerns over persistent price pressures, supporting the 37.5% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting while a hold holds the lead at 61.5%. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment has further tempered expectations for easing, though the September 15-16 decision and any associated guidance will shape the near-term path. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in limited room for cuts or aggressive moves, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market ahead of the midterms.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,853,007Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly gain and core at 2.4% have reinforced concerns over persistent price pressures, supporting the 37.5% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting while a hold holds the lead at 61.5%. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment has further tempered expectations for easing, though the September 15-16 decision and any associated guidance will shape the near-term path. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in limited room for cuts or aggressive moves, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market ahead of the midterms.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$1,853,007Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside a 0.4% monthly gain and core at 2.4% have reinforced concerns over persistent price pressures, supporting the 37.5% market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting while a hold holds the lead at 61.5%. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report showing 162,000 payroll gains and steady 4.1% unemployment has further tempered expectations for easing, though the September 15-16 decision and any associated guidance will shape the near-term path. With the federal funds target at 3.50-3.75%, traders are pricing in limited room for cuts or aggressive moves, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and a still-resilient labor market ahead of the midterms.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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