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Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

Sep 30

Sep 30

Dec 31

$18,863 Wol.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$18,863 Wol.

Polymarket

Below 4.76%

$7,559 Wol.

52%

Below 4.73%

$1,124 Wol.

33%

Below 4.70%

$3,141 Wol.

12%

Below 4.67%

$220 Wol.

10%

Below 4.64%

$1,638 Wol.

12%

Below 4.61%

$2,030 Wol.

4%

Below 4.56%

$763 Wol.

4%

Below 4.51%

$436 Wol.

7%

Below 4.45%

$1,953 Wol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$18,863
Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.83–4.85% as of September 9–10, reflects upward pressure from Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, which has revived inflation concerns ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, combined with robust August payrolls, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike to roughly 60%, while the Treasury’s $6 billion long-end buyback fell short of expectations and failed to ease yields. Strong corporate debt issuance tied to AI investments and fiscal supply dynamics have further lifted term premiums. Traders are watching Friday’s CPI release and the FOMC decision for clues on whether yields can retrace lower before month-end or remain anchored near multi-year highs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Wolumen
$18,863
Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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Często zadawane pytania

"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 9 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Below 4.76%" z 52%, za nim "Below 4.73%" z 33%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 52¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 52% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" wygenerował $18.9K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Sep 2, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?", przeglądaj 9 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" jest "Below 4.76%" z 52%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 52% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Below 4.73%" z 33%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.