Recent strong U.S. job gains and persistently elevated inflation have fragmented trader sentiment across Fed policy sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Against the current federal funds rate near 3.63%, these data have lifted implied probabilities for hikes in the near term, yet the broad distribution of outcomes—from all pauses at 29% to various hike combinations—reflects uncertainty ahead of the August CPI release and the September 15-16 decision, where incoming labor and price prints will shape the market-implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$14,926 Wol.
$14,926 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
10%
Pause–Hike–Pause
7%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 29%
Hike–Pause–Pause 15%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
Hike–Pause–Hike 11%
$14,926 Wol.
$14,926 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$329 Wol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$538 Wol.
15%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$231 Wol.
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$474 Wol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$618 Wol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,737 Wol.
29%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$364 Wol.
10%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$366 Wol.
7%
Other
$269 Wol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. job gains and persistently elevated inflation have fragmented trader sentiment across Fed policy sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Against the current federal funds rate near 3.63%, these data have lifted implied probabilities for hikes in the near term, yet the broad distribution of outcomes—from all pauses at 29% to various hike combinations—reflects uncertainty ahead of the August CPI release and the September 15-16 decision, where incoming labor and price prints will shape the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,926Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. job gains and persistently elevated inflation have fragmented trader sentiment across Fed policy sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Against the current federal funds rate near 3.63%, these data have lifted implied probabilities for hikes in the near term, yet the broad distribution of outcomes—from all pauses at 29% to various hike combinations—reflects uncertainty ahead of the August CPI release and the September 15-16 decision, where incoming labor and price prints will shape the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$14,926Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong U.S. job gains and persistently elevated inflation have fragmented trader sentiment across Fed policy sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, well above the 2% target. Against the current federal funds rate near 3.63%, these data have lifted implied probabilities for hikes in the near term, yet the broad distribution of outcomes—from all pauses at 29% to various hike combinations—reflects uncertainty ahead of the August CPI release and the September 15-16 decision, where incoming labor and price prints will shape the market-implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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