The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.83–4.85%—levels last seen in late 2023—reflects persistent upward pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, sticky core inflation, and heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits near 6% of GDP. Strong August nonfarm payrolls and resilient growth expectations tied to AI infrastructure have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed Fed rate cuts, with futures pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Auction demand remains solid, yet elevated term premiums and fiscal issuance schedules through year-end keep upside risks to yields alive into 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$336,485 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
5.0%
71%
5.2%
26%
5.5%
14%
5.7%
7%
6.0%
2%
$336,485 Wol.
5.0%
$95,277 Wol.
71%
5.2%
$35,213 Wol.
26%
5.5%
$11,616 Wol.
14%
5.7%
$4,686 Wol.
7%
6.0%
$7,549 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.83–4.85%—levels last seen in late 2023—reflects persistent upward pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, sticky core inflation, and heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits near 6% of GDP. Strong August nonfarm payrolls and resilient growth expectations tied to AI infrastructure have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed Fed rate cuts, with futures pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Auction demand remains solid, yet elevated term premiums and fiscal issuance schedules through year-end keep upside risks to yields alive into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$336,485Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.83–4.85%—levels last seen in late 2023—reflects persistent upward pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, sticky core inflation, and heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits near 6% of GDP. Strong August nonfarm payrolls and resilient growth expectations tied to AI infrastructure have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed Fed rate cuts, with futures pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Auction demand remains solid, yet elevated term premiums and fiscal issuance schedules through year-end keep upside risks to yields alive into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$336,485Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.83–4.85%—levels last seen in late 2023—reflects persistent upward pressure from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving oil prices above $100 per barrel, sticky core inflation, and heavy Treasury supply amid federal deficits near 6% of GDP. Strong August nonfarm payrolls and resilient growth expectations tied to AI infrastructure have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed Fed rate cuts, with futures pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Auction demand remains solid, yet elevated term premiums and fiscal issuance schedules through year-end keep upside risks to yields alive into 2027.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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