**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings.** Both meetings resulted in holds, with July featuring a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This backdrop leaves the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor separating Pause–Pause–Pause from Other outcomes. Traders see stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth supporting further pauses, yet forward-looking futures and recent communications price in a meaningful chance of tightening if price pressures do not moderate. The near-even split between the two leading resolutions reflects this uncertainty ahead of the upcoming meeting, while the negligible probability on any cut underscores the market’s view that easing remains off the table in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,723 Wol.
$842,723 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
54%
Other 54%
Pause–Pause–Pause 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$842,723 Wol.
$842,723 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$326,496 Wol.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$100,494 Wol.
1%
Other
$359,857 Wol.
54%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings.** Both meetings resulted in holds, with July featuring a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This backdrop leaves the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor separating Pause–Pause–Pause from Other outcomes. Traders see stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth supporting further pauses, yet forward-looking futures and recent communications price in a meaningful chance of tightening if price pressures do not moderate. The near-even split between the two leading resolutions reflects this uncertainty ahead of the upcoming meeting, while the negligible probability on any cut underscores the market’s view that easing remains off the table in the near term.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$842,723Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings.** Both meetings resulted in holds, with July featuring a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This backdrop leaves the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor separating Pause–Pause–Pause from Other outcomes. Traders see stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth supporting further pauses, yet forward-looking futures and recent communications price in a meaningful chance of tightening if price pressures do not moderate. The near-even split between the two leading resolutions reflects this uncertainty ahead of the upcoming meeting, while the negligible probability on any cut underscores the market’s view that easing remains off the table in the near term.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$842,723Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated by energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% through the June and July 2026 FOMC meetings.** Both meetings resulted in holds, with July featuring a 9–3 vote and three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike. This backdrop leaves the September 15–16 decision as the key swing factor separating Pause–Pause–Pause from Other outcomes. Traders see stable labor market conditions and solid economic growth supporting further pauses, yet forward-looking futures and recent communications price in a meaningful chance of tightening if price pressures do not moderate. The near-even split between the two leading resolutions reflects this uncertainty ahead of the upcoming meeting, while the negligible probability on any cut underscores the market’s view that easing remains off the table in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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