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Gospodarka·Biznes

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

icon for How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Gospodarka·Biznes

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

$258,413 Wol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$258,413 Wol.

Polymarket

Below 3.9%

$50,631 Wol.

14%

Below 3.8%

$55,787 Wol.

11%

Below 3.7%

$32,324 Wol.

8%

Below 3.6%

$6,185 Wol.

5%

Below 3.5%

$39,404 Wol.

6%

Below 3.0%

$1,187 Wol.

4%

Below 2.0%

$564 Wol.

2%

Below 1.0%

$40,572 Wol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven 10-year Treasury yields higher to around 4.95-4.97% as of mid-September 2026. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations, while headline inflation held near 3.4% year-over-year, well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions. Markets now price an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with further tightening possible later in the year as the policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range. Strong August job gains and a stable labor market reinforce this stance, reducing prospects for near-term easing that could compress yields. Key upcoming releases include September CPI and additional FOMC decisions through year-end that will shape the market-implied rate path.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$258,413
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hawkish Federal Reserve communications and sticky inflation have driven 10-year Treasury yields higher to around 4.95-4.97% as of mid-September 2026. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, exceeding expectations, while headline inflation held near 3.4% year-over-year, well above the 2% target amid energy price pressures and geopolitical tensions. Markets now price an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with further tightening possible later in the year as the policy rate remains in the 3.50-3.75% range. Strong August job gains and a stable labor market reinforce this stance, reducing prospects for near-term easing that could compress yields. Key upcoming releases include September CPI and additional FOMC decisions through year-end that will shape the market-implied rate path.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Wolumen
$258,413
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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"How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 9 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Below 4.0%" z 100%, za nim "Below 3.9%" z 14%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 100¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" wygenerował $258.4K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Nov 12, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?", przeglądaj 9 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" jest "Below 4.0%" z 100%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 100% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Below 3.9%" z 14%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.