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icon for Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?
Polityka·Stawki Fed

Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?

icon for Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?
Polityka·Stawki Fed

Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.5%

4,0% 14.3%

3,75% 3.7%

Polymarket

$6,888,776 Wol.

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.5%

4,0% 14.3%

3,75% 3.7%

Polymarket

$6,888,776 Wol.

≤1,0%

$257,454 Wol.

<1%

1,25

$153,679 Wol.

<1%

1,5%

$151,449 Wol.

<1%

1,75%

$153,814 Wol.

<1%

2,0%

$269,410 Wol.

<1%

2,25%

$93,225 Wol.

<1%

2,5%

$179,954 Wol.

<1%

2,75%

$70,083 Wol.

<1%

3,0%

$500,181 Wol.

<1%

3,25%

$85,419 Wol.

<1%

3,5%

$206,199 Wol.

2%

3,75%

$538,512 Wol.

4%

4,0%

$1,373,683 Wol.

14%

4,25%

$441,467 Wol.

55%

≥ 4,5%

$2,414,247 Wol.

30%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median for end-2026 and 2027, reflecting 16 of 18 participants anticipating at least one more increase this year amid PCE inflation projected at 3.7%. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, unemployment around 4.1%, and persistent price pressures from tariffs and energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer stance under Chair Warsh. Polymarket pricing, with 4.25% leading at 54.9% followed by ≥4.5% at 29.5%, aligns closely with this consensus path of modest further tightening before stabilization.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Wolumen
$6,888,776
Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The September 16 meeting delivered a unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, with the updated dot plot showing a 4.1% median for end-2026 and 2027, reflecting 16 of 18 participants anticipating at least one more increase this year amid PCE inflation projected at 3.7%. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, unemployment around 4.1%, and persistent price pressures from tariffs and energy costs have reinforced the higher-for-longer stance under Chair Warsh. Polymarket pricing, with 4.25% leading at 54.9% followed by ≥4.5% at 29.5%, aligns closely with this consensus path of modest further tightening before stabilization.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Wolumen
$6,888,776
Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...

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Tak

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Często zadawane pytania

"Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 15 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "4,25%" z 55%, za nim "≥ 4,5%" z 30%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 55¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 55% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?" wygenerował $6.9 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Jan 12, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?", przeglądaj 15 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?" jest "4,25%" z 55%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 55% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "≥ 4,5%" z 30%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Jaka będzie stawka Fed pod koniec 2026 roku?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.