Market consensus from the latest Focus survey places 2026 IPCA inflation at 5.00%, aligning with the leading Polymarket bin and reflecting marginal downward revisions amid July’s 4.44% twelve-month reading that returned within the 3% ±1.5% target band. Traders weigh resilient GDP growth near 1.9%, a tight labor market with unemployment around 5.3%, and ongoing Selic easing toward 13.75% against persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, commodity prices, and base effects that could push the full-year outcome above or below the 5% threshold. The narrow gap between the 5.00-5.49% and 4.50-4.99% outcomes captures uncertainty ahead of August data and the September 16 Copom decision, where incoming prints and policy signals will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near or drift from the current 5% anchor.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil Annual Inflation 2026
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49% 41.2%
4.50-4.99% 33.6%
5.50-5.99% 17.9%
6.00-6.49% 1.9%
$107,293 Wol.
$107,293 Wol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
1%
4.00-4.49%
2%
4.50-4.99%
34%
5.00-5.49%
41%
5.50-5.99%
18%
6.00-6.49%
2%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 41.2%
4.50-4.99% 33.6%
5.50-5.99% 17.9%
6.00-6.49% 1.9%
$107,293 Wol.
$107,293 Wol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$6,485 Wol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$6,367 Wol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,840 Wol.
1%
4.00-4.49%
$14,865 Wol.
2%
4.50-4.99%
$18,166 Wol.
34%
5.00-5.49%
$16,619 Wol.
41%
5.50-5.99%
$11,228 Wol.
18%
6.00-6.49%
$7,549 Wol.
2%
6.50-6.99%
$7,041 Wol.
<1%
7.00%+
$5,134 Wol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket consensus from the latest Focus survey places 2026 IPCA inflation at 5.00%, aligning with the leading Polymarket bin and reflecting marginal downward revisions amid July’s 4.44% twelve-month reading that returned within the 3% ±1.5% target band. Traders weigh resilient GDP growth near 1.9%, a tight labor market with unemployment around 5.3%, and ongoing Selic easing toward 13.75% against persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, commodity prices, and base effects that could push the full-year outcome above or below the 5% threshold. The narrow gap between the 5.00-5.49% and 4.50-4.99% outcomes captures uncertainty ahead of August data and the September 16 Copom decision, where incoming prints and policy signals will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near or drift from the current 5% anchor.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Rynek otwarty: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Wolumen
$107,293Data zakończenia
Jan 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlMarket consensus from the latest Focus survey places 2026 IPCA inflation at 5.00%, aligning with the leading Polymarket bin and reflecting marginal downward revisions amid July’s 4.44% twelve-month reading that returned within the 3% ±1.5% target band. Traders weigh resilient GDP growth near 1.9%, a tight labor market with unemployment around 5.3%, and ongoing Selic easing toward 13.75% against persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, commodity prices, and base effects that could push the full-year outcome above or below the 5% threshold. The narrow gap between the 5.00-5.49% and 4.50-4.99% outcomes captures uncertainty ahead of August data and the September 16 Copom decision, where incoming prints and policy signals will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near or drift from the current 5% anchor.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Wolumen
$107,293Data zakończenia
Jan 12, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Market consensus from the latest Focus survey places 2026 IPCA inflation at 5.00%, aligning with the leading Polymarket bin and reflecting marginal downward revisions amid July’s 4.44% twelve-month reading that returned within the 3% ±1.5% target band. Traders weigh resilient GDP growth near 1.9%, a tight labor market with unemployment around 5.3%, and ongoing Selic easing toward 13.75% against persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, commodity prices, and base effects that could push the full-year outcome above or below the 5% threshold. The narrow gap between the 5.00-5.49% and 4.50-4.99% outcomes captures uncertainty ahead of August data and the September 16 Copom decision, where incoming prints and policy signals will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near or drift from the current 5% anchor.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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