Recent polling and campaign activity position Renan Santos as the leading contender for third place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, with trader consensus reflecting his gains among younger and digitally engaged voters through the Missão party’s anti-establishment messaging. Augusto Cury follows closely after a late-August surge tied to national television exposure and appeals to those disillusioned with polarization, though his support has shown more variability across surveys. Ronaldo Caiado, the PSD nominee and former Goiás governor, holds lower odds amid a crowded center-right field and single-digit national numbers. Legal disputes over Santos’s social media registration and public funding have introduced short-term uncertainty but have not derailed his visible street and online mobilization in the final weeks. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain the clear top two in every major poll, constraining the space available for others.