Ongoing bilateral mechanisms, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have created a structured channel for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at roughly $30 billion per side. The October 2025 Busan agreement suspended major tariffs and export controls until November 2026, with both governments committing to further talks aimed at extending or adjusting terms. Recent Section 301 actions, such as the July 2026 12.5 percent forced-labor tariff, have remained within the prior framework's limits, while China has signaled acceptance of managed rates without broad retaliation. These steps, combined with agricultural purchase commitments and scheduled high-level diplomacy, underpin trader expectations of a formal accord or extension by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日89% 確率
$245,647 Vol.
$245,647 Vol.
2026/12/31
89% 確率
$245,647 Vol.
$245,647 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral mechanisms, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have created a structured channel for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at roughly $30 billion per side. The October 2025 Busan agreement suspended major tariffs and export controls until November 2026, with both governments committing to further talks aimed at extending or adjusting terms. Recent Section 301 actions, such as the July 2026 12.5 percent forced-labor tariff, have remained within the prior framework's limits, while China has signaled acceptance of managed rates without broad retaliation. These steps, combined with agricultural purchase commitments and scheduled high-level diplomacy, underpin trader expectations of a formal accord or extension by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
音量
$245,647終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral mechanisms, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have created a structured channel for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at roughly $30 billion per side. The October 2025 Busan agreement suspended major tariffs and export controls until November 2026, with both governments committing to further talks aimed at extending or adjusting terms. Recent Section 301 actions, such as the July 2026 12.5 percent forced-labor tariff, have remained within the prior framework's limits, while China has signaled acceptance of managed rates without broad retaliation. These steps, combined with agricultural purchase commitments and scheduled high-level diplomacy, underpin trader expectations of a formal accord or extension by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$245,647終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral mechanisms, including the U.S.-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, have created a structured channel for reciprocal tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods valued at roughly $30 billion per side. The October 2025 Busan agreement suspended major tariffs and export controls until November 2026, with both governments committing to further talks aimed at extending or adjusting terms. Recent Section 301 actions, such as the July 2026 12.5 percent forced-labor tariff, have remained within the prior framework's limits, while China has signaled acceptance of managed rates without broad retaliation. These steps, combined with agricultural purchase commitments and scheduled high-level diplomacy, underpin trader expectations of a formal accord or extension by year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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