Recent diplomatic summits between U.S. and Chinese leaders, including the May 2026 Beijing meeting and the scheduled September Washington visit, have anchored a framework of strategic stability that prioritizes managed competition over direct confrontation. Both sides continue economic negotiations, tariff adjustments, and military-to-military communications while avoiding major escalations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a clash before 2027 reflects this pattern of de-escalation and mutual deterrence, consistent with historical precedents where sustained high-level engagement reduces near-term kinetic risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid miscalculation during gray-zone patrols, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or abrupt changes in leadership posture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$207,710 Vol.
$207,710 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$207,710 Vol.
$207,710 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic summits between U.S. and Chinese leaders, including the May 2026 Beijing meeting and the scheduled September Washington visit, have anchored a framework of strategic stability that prioritizes managed competition over direct confrontation. Both sides continue economic negotiations, tariff adjustments, and military-to-military communications while avoiding major escalations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a clash before 2027 reflects this pattern of de-escalation and mutual deterrence, consistent with historical precedents where sustained high-level engagement reduces near-term kinetic risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid miscalculation during gray-zone patrols, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or abrupt changes in leadership posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$207,710終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic summits between U.S. and Chinese leaders, including the May 2026 Beijing meeting and the scheduled September Washington visit, have anchored a framework of strategic stability that prioritizes managed competition over direct confrontation. Both sides continue economic negotiations, tariff adjustments, and military-to-military communications while avoiding major escalations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a clash before 2027 reflects this pattern of de-escalation and mutual deterrence, consistent with historical precedents where sustained high-level engagement reduces near-term kinetic risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid miscalculation during gray-zone patrols, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or abrupt changes in leadership posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$207,710終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic summits between U.S. and Chinese leaders, including the May 2026 Beijing meeting and the scheduled September Washington visit, have anchored a framework of strategic stability that prioritizes managed competition over direct confrontation. Both sides continue economic negotiations, tariff adjustments, and military-to-military communications while avoiding major escalations in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea. Trader consensus at 95.5% against a clash before 2027 reflects this pattern of de-escalation and mutual deterrence, consistent with historical precedents where sustained high-level engagement reduces near-term kinetic risks. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include rapid miscalculation during gray-zone patrols, an unforeseen Taiwan-related crisis, or abrupt changes in leadership posture.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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