Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of Mayyun Island since September 2026 have raised risks for Bab el-Mandeb transits, yet IMF PortWatch data show a 7-day average of roughly 29 vessel arrivals daily—well above the market’s effective-closure threshold of 10. Ongoing Saudi-backed Yemeni offensives, including recent coastal advances near Dhubab, have produced conflicting claims of control without halting commercial flows. Elevated ISPS Security Level 3, persistent Houthi missile and drone threats targeting select vessels, and UN warnings of volatility continue to suppress volumes 40-60 percent below pre-2026 norms while allowing partial liner restorations via Suez. Traders assign December 31 only a 14 percent chance of closure because ground fighting and selective attacks have not yet produced sustained transit levels near the resolution trigger, though further escalation or successful coalition operations could shift that assessment before year-end.