Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of islands such as Mayyun since September 2026 have enabled selective targeting of Saudi-linked vessels, prompting a declared blockade on those shipments from late July onward and sharply reduced transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Daily vessel counts have fallen to roughly 29–36 in late October, well below prior baselines, with many operators rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or relying on naval escorts amid ongoing missile and drone threats. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming coastal positions near Dhubab, yet independent verification remains limited and Houthi surveillance and attack capacity persists. ISPS Security Level 3 remains in force as of late October, with recent naval interventions including Indian escorts and French interceptions underscoring elevated but not total disruption. Trader assessments reflect this calibrated risk environment, where full effective closure would require escalation beyond current patterns of selective interdiction and continued partial traffic.