**Ongoing diplomatic efforts and limited military operations continue to shape trader expectations against a full U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027.** Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and the June memorandum of understanding aimed at halting conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and addressing Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations, both sides have maintained sporadic strikes focused on military targets near the waterway. Recent early September exchanges, including U.S. strikes on coastal sites and Iranian responses, have not escalated to ground operations or regime-change objectives requiring large-scale troop deployment. Analysts note significant logistical and political barriers to a mainland invasion, with U.S. actions emphasizing air and naval pressure alongside ongoing mediated talks rather than occupation. Congressional scrutiny of military authorizations and the preference for economic and diplomatic tools further support the current 85.5% implied probability that no invasion will occur in the remaining months of 2026.