Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record since 2021, strong primary performance, and the state's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 2024 margin. Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in after the primary filer was disqualified, leaving him with low visibility, limited funding, and no major-party infrastructure. A late August poll showed Luján leading 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Luján reflects this structural edge and funding disparity. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter outcomes before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,938 Vol.
$25,938 Vol.
2026/11/02
ベン・レイ・ルジャン（民主党）
97%
ラリー・マーカー（共和党）
4%
$25,938 Vol.
$25,938 Vol.
2026/11/02
ベン・レイ・ルジャン（民主党）
$16,679 Vol.
97%
ラリー・マーカー（共和党）
$9,258 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record since 2021, strong primary performance, and the state's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 2024 margin. Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in after the primary filer was disqualified, leaving him with low visibility, limited funding, and no major-party infrastructure. A late August poll showed Luján leading 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Luján reflects this structural edge and funding disparity. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter outcomes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$25,938終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record since 2021, strong primary performance, and the state's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 2024 margin. Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in after the primary filer was disqualified, leaving him with low visibility, limited funding, and no major-party infrastructure. A late August poll showed Luján leading 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Luján reflects this structural edge and funding disparity. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter outcomes before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$25,938終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record since 2021, strong primary performance, and the state's consistent Democratic lean, including Kamala Harris's 2024 margin. Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in after the primary filer was disqualified, leaving him with low visibility, limited funding, and no major-party infrastructure. A late August poll showed Luján leading 53-38 among likely voters, consistent with forecasters rating the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 96.9% for Luján reflects this structural edge and funding disparity. A late scandal, health event, or sharp national shift could still alter outcomes before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問