Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising toward record levels, are driving suppressed Atlantic activity through enhanced vertical wind shear and drier air, keeping the basin unusually quiet at the climatological peak. As of early September 2026, the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic over the next seven days and zero hurricanes season-to-date, with only five short-lived named storms including Edouard’s tropical-storm landfall in Louisiana; NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% chance of a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major). Traders therefore see low near-term probability of any U.S. hurricane landfall, though warm Gulf and subtropical waters could allow late-September or October development once shear relaxes. NHC weekly outlooks and updated seasonal model runs through October remain the key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDove arriverà un uragano negli Stati Uniti durante la stagione degli uragani del 2026?
Dove arriverà un uragano negli Stati Uniti durante la stagione degli uragani del 2026?
$16,997 Vol.
7 dic 2026
Texas
31%
Louisiana
15%
Mississippi
2%
Alabama
7%
Florida
20%
Georgia
7%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
18%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
7%
Delaware
8%
New Jersey
9%
New York
3%
Connecticut
3%
Rhode Island
7%
Massachusetts
7%
New Hampshire
6%
Maine
6%
Hawaii
23%
$16,997 Vol.
Texas
$168 Vol.
31%
Louisiana
$320 Vol.
15%
Mississippi
$501 Vol.
2%
Alabama
$724 Vol.
7%
Florida
$555 Vol.
20%
Georgia
$1,579 Vol.
7%
South Carolina
$333 Vol.
10%
North Carolina
$2,247 Vol.
18%
Virginia
$653 Vol.
5%
Maryland
$1,232 Vol.
7%
Delaware
$481 Vol.
8%
New Jersey
$143 Vol.
9%
New York
$852 Vol.
3%
Connecticut
$450 Vol.
3%
Rhode Island
$1,106 Vol.
7%
Massachusetts
$1,485 Vol.
7%
New Hampshire
$1,011 Vol.
6%
Maine
$1,747 Vol.
6%
Hawaii
$1,410 Vol.
23%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising toward record levels, are driving suppressed Atlantic activity through enhanced vertical wind shear and drier air, keeping the basin unusually quiet at the climatological peak. As of early September 2026, the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic over the next seven days and zero hurricanes season-to-date, with only five short-lived named storms including Edouard’s tropical-storm landfall in Louisiana; NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% chance of a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major). Traders therefore see low near-term probability of any U.S. hurricane landfall, though warm Gulf and subtropical waters could allow late-September or October development once shear relaxes. NHC weekly outlooks and updated seasonal model runs through October remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 4:31 PM ET
Volume
$16,997Data di fine
8 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 4:31 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising toward record levels, are driving suppressed Atlantic activity through enhanced vertical wind shear and drier air, keeping the basin unusually quiet at the climatological peak. As of early September 2026, the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic over the next seven days and zero hurricanes season-to-date, with only five short-lived named storms including Edouard’s tropical-storm landfall in Louisiana; NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% chance of a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major). Traders therefore see low near-term probability of any U.S. hurricane landfall, though warm Gulf and subtropical waters could allow late-September or October development once shear relaxes. NHC weekly outlooks and updated seasonal model runs through October remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Volume
$16,997Data di fine
8 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 4:31 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising toward record levels, are driving suppressed Atlantic activity through enhanced vertical wind shear and drier air, keeping the basin unusually quiet at the climatological peak. As of early September 2026, the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclones forming in the Atlantic over the next seven days and zero hurricanes season-to-date, with only five short-lived named storms including Edouard’s tropical-storm landfall in Louisiana; NOAA’s August update maintains a 75% chance of a below-normal season overall (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, 0–2 major). Traders therefore see low near-term probability of any U.S. hurricane landfall, though warm Gulf and subtropical waters could allow late-September or October development once shear relaxes. NHC weekly outlooks and updated seasonal model runs through October remain the key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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