RFK Jr. remains firmly entrenched as HHS Secretary with active leadership moves, including recent elevations of senior advisors to advance the administration’s health agenda and a scheduled keynote at the Children’s Health Defense conference. President Trump’s continued backing and the absence of resignation signals or Senate pressure sustain trader expectations that he will serve through year-end. Ongoing legal challenges over vaccine advisory appointments and public health controversies, such as measles outbreaks, have not translated into removal momentum. With midterms approaching and internal reorganization underway, the 79% implied probability for “No” reflects consensus that structural and political barriers to departure outweigh short-term risks before December 31.