Trump remains firmly positioned to serve through the end of 2026, as structural barriers to early removal—whether by resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, or Senate conviction after impeachment—remain high. Low approval ratings near 37-40% and an ongoing conflict with Iran have fueled midterm uncertainty and Democratic impeachment talk ahead of November 2026, yet House action alone cannot oust a president and Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that historical patterns and current partisan divisions make improbable. No verified reports indicate health incapacity, formal resignation plans, or bipartisan momentum sufficient to trigger removal before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and political realities over short-term pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$11,451,030 Vol.
$11,451,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$11,451,030 Vol.
$11,451,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains firmly positioned to serve through the end of 2026, as structural barriers to early removal—whether by resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, or Senate conviction after impeachment—remain high. Low approval ratings near 37-40% and an ongoing conflict with Iran have fueled midterm uncertainty and Democratic impeachment talk ahead of November 2026, yet House action alone cannot oust a president and Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that historical patterns and current partisan divisions make improbable. No verified reports indicate health incapacity, formal resignation plans, or bipartisan momentum sufficient to trigger removal before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and political realities over short-term pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,451,030Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains firmly positioned to serve through the end of 2026, as structural barriers to early removal—whether by resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, or Senate conviction after impeachment—remain high. Low approval ratings near 37-40% and an ongoing conflict with Iran have fueled midterm uncertainty and Democratic impeachment talk ahead of November 2026, yet House action alone cannot oust a president and Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that historical patterns and current partisan divisions make improbable. No verified reports indicate health incapacity, formal resignation plans, or bipartisan momentum sufficient to trigger removal before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and political realities over short-term pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,451,030Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trump remains firmly positioned to serve through the end of 2026, as structural barriers to early removal—whether by resignation, 25th Amendment invocation, or Senate conviction after impeachment—remain high. Low approval ratings near 37-40% and an ongoing conflict with Iran have fueled midterm uncertainty and Democratic impeachment talk ahead of November 2026, yet House action alone cannot oust a president and Senate conviction requires a two-thirds majority that historical patterns and current partisan divisions make improbable. No verified reports indicate health incapacity, formal resignation plans, or bipartisan momentum sufficient to trigger removal before 2027. Trader consensus reflects these institutional and political realities over short-term pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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