Nicolás Maduro holds the highest implied probability in the Venezuela leadership market at end-2026 because he was never formally removed from office following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces on narcotics charges. Venezuelan institutions, including the Supreme Court and National Assembly, have treated his absence as temporary rather than triggering succession or new elections, preserving his legal claim to the presidency through December 31. Delcy Rodríguez, serving as acting president and cooperating with Washington on oil arrangements and limited judicial reforms, ranks second as the most immediate successor within the current Chavista structure. Recent August 2026 U.S.-backed talks between her government and select opposition figures produced agreements on Supreme Court changes but deferred broader electoral timelines, limiting momentum for figures such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any decisive constitutional step to vacate the office or install a replacement before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLeader del Venezuela alla fine del 2026?
Leader del Venezuela alla fine del 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 83.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 1.7%
Nessun capo di stato 1.0%
$96,038,961 Vol.
$96,038,961 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
83%
Delcy Rodríguez
9%
María Corina Machado
2%
Nessun capo di stato
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 83.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 9%
María Corina Machado 1.7%
Nessun capo di stato 1.0%
$96,038,961 Vol.
$96,038,961 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,840,903 Vol.
83%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,787,037 Vol.
9%
María Corina Machado
$1,458,235 Vol.
2%
Nessun capo di stato
$1,516,149 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,090,668 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$1,230,483 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$820,287 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,167,454 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,988,289 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,648,889 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,143,549 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,136,697 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,415,424 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,191,691 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,812,484 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,790,723 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds the highest implied probability in the Venezuela leadership market at end-2026 because he was never formally removed from office following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces on narcotics charges. Venezuelan institutions, including the Supreme Court and National Assembly, have treated his absence as temporary rather than triggering succession or new elections, preserving his legal claim to the presidency through December 31. Delcy Rodríguez, serving as acting president and cooperating with Washington on oil arrangements and limited judicial reforms, ranks second as the most immediate successor within the current Chavista structure. Recent August 2026 U.S.-backed talks between her government and select opposition figures produced agreements on Supreme Court changes but deferred broader electoral timelines, limiting momentum for figures such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any decisive constitutional step to vacate the office or install a replacement before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$96,038,961Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds the highest implied probability in the Venezuela leadership market at end-2026 because he was never formally removed from office following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces on narcotics charges. Venezuelan institutions, including the Supreme Court and National Assembly, have treated his absence as temporary rather than triggering succession or new elections, preserving his legal claim to the presidency through December 31. Delcy Rodríguez, serving as acting president and cooperating with Washington on oil arrangements and limited judicial reforms, ranks second as the most immediate successor within the current Chavista structure. Recent August 2026 U.S.-backed talks between her government and select opposition figures produced agreements on Supreme Court changes but deferred broader electoral timelines, limiting momentum for figures such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any decisive constitutional step to vacate the office or install a replacement before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$96,038,961Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro holds the highest implied probability in the Venezuela leadership market at end-2026 because he was never formally removed from office following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces on narcotics charges. Venezuelan institutions, including the Supreme Court and National Assembly, have treated his absence as temporary rather than triggering succession or new elections, preserving his legal claim to the presidency through December 31. Delcy Rodríguez, serving as acting president and cooperating with Washington on oil arrangements and limited judicial reforms, ranks second as the most immediate successor within the current Chavista structure. Recent August 2026 U.S.-backed talks between her government and select opposition figures produced agreements on Supreme Court changes but deferred broader electoral timelines, limiting momentum for figures such as María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any decisive constitutional step to vacate the office or install a replacement before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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