**No at 89% reflects the extremely low base rate of 10kt+ meteoroid impacts, with no identified threats on current NEO risk lists for the remainder of 2026.** NASA and ESA catalogs show only small objects (under 2 meters) like 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 detected hours before harmless atmospheric entry, consistent with improved early-warning systems but far below the energy threshold. Risk tables list the nearest potential impacts years later at probabilities well under 1%, and historical data indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every several decades or longer. Traders see no near-term catalysts—such as new large NEO discoveries or orbital updates—that would shift consensus before year-end, reinforcing the strong market-implied odds against occurrence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
11% probabilità
$203,785 Vol.
$203,785 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
11% probabilità
$203,785 Vol.
$203,785 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 89% reflects the extremely low base rate of 10kt+ meteoroid impacts, with no identified threats on current NEO risk lists for the remainder of 2026.** NASA and ESA catalogs show only small objects (under 2 meters) like 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 detected hours before harmless atmospheric entry, consistent with improved early-warning systems but far below the energy threshold. Risk tables list the nearest potential impacts years later at probabilities well under 1%, and historical data indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every several decades or longer. Traders see no near-term catalysts—such as new large NEO discoveries or orbital updates—that would shift consensus before year-end, reinforcing the strong market-implied odds against occurrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$203,785Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No at 89% reflects the extremely low base rate of 10kt+ meteoroid impacts, with no identified threats on current NEO risk lists for the remainder of 2026.** NASA and ESA catalogs show only small objects (under 2 meters) like 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 detected hours before harmless atmospheric entry, consistent with improved early-warning systems but far below the energy threshold. Risk tables list the nearest potential impacts years later at probabilities well under 1%, and historical data indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every several decades or longer. Traders see no near-term catalysts—such as new large NEO discoveries or orbital updates—that would shift consensus before year-end, reinforcing the strong market-implied odds against occurrence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$203,785Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**No at 89% reflects the extremely low base rate of 10kt+ meteoroid impacts, with no identified threats on current NEO risk lists for the remainder of 2026.** NASA and ESA catalogs show only small objects (under 2 meters) like 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4 detected hours before harmless atmospheric entry, consistent with improved early-warning systems but far below the energy threshold. Risk tables list the nearest potential impacts years later at probabilities well under 1%, and historical data indicate events of this scale occur roughly once every several decades or longer. Traders see no near-term catalysts—such as new large NEO discoveries or orbital updates—that would shift consensus before year-end, reinforcing the strong market-implied odds against occurrence.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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