Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ESA’s near-Earth object surveys has identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of delivering 100 kilotons of impact energy during 2026, underpinning the market’s 96.4% implied probability of “No.” Current risk lists show only low-probability encounters involving small objects whose estimated energies fall well below threshold, while historical bolide data indicate events of this scale occur roughly once per century. With most of the year elapsed without detection of a suitable impactor and continued refinement of orbital catalogs reducing uncertainty, trader consensus reflects strong scientific consensus on low near-term risk. Residual uncertainty stems from potential undiscovered small bodies or long-period comets entering detection range late, though such scenarios remain statistically remote given existing survey coverage.