No cataloged near-Earth objects currently pose a 5 kt or greater impact risk for the remainder of 2026, according to NASA and ESA monitoring systems, which underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability of “No.” Estimates of annual frequency for airbursts at this energy threshold range from roughly one per year in older models to one every few decades in more recent analyses of CNEOS fireball data, reflecting the steep size-frequency distribution of small meteoroids. Multiple 2026 events detected by ground sensors and GOES satellites have released only hundreds of tons TNT equivalent, consistent with objects under 2 meters in diameter. Continued Sentry and Scout tracking, plus any new detections before year-end, represent the key variables that could shift consensus if an unexpected large body appears on a collision trajectory.