Elevated West Nile virus activity in mosquitoes across all New York City boroughs, with 1,568 positive pools detected by early September 2026—nearly double the prior year's pace—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Official NYC Health Department data show 13 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases year-to-date, consistent with transmission via Culex mosquitoes during the typical June–October season. Recent historical averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases among residents from 2021–2025, following a lower long-term median of 14, support trader consensus around this range amid ongoing peak activity and surveillance intensity. National trends and early-season mosquito detections further inform the 26.5% odds on 35–49 cases, while lower probabilities on extremes reflect typical variability and resolution criteria tied to confirmed resident reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti casi di malattia neuroinvasiva del Nilo occidentale saranno segnalati tra i residenti di New York City nel 2026?
Quanti casi di malattia neuroinvasiva del Nilo occidentale saranno segnalati tra i residenti di New York City nel 2026?
Da 20 a 34 51%
Da 35 a 49 27%
Meno di 20 10.8%
50 o più 5.1%
$12,010 Vol.
$12,010 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Meno di 20
11%
Da 20 a 34
51%
Da 35 a 49
27%
50 o più
5%
Da 20 a 34 51%
Da 35 a 49 27%
Meno di 20 10.8%
50 o più 5.1%
$12,010 Vol.
$12,010 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Meno di 20
$3,864 Vol.
11%
Da 20 a 34
$5,015 Vol.
51%
Da 35 a 49
$2,627 Vol.
27%
50 o più
$504 Vol.
5%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in mosquitoes across all New York City boroughs, with 1,568 positive pools detected by early September 2026—nearly double the prior year's pace—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Official NYC Health Department data show 13 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases year-to-date, consistent with transmission via Culex mosquitoes during the typical June–October season. Recent historical averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases among residents from 2021–2025, following a lower long-term median of 14, support trader consensus around this range amid ongoing peak activity and surveillance intensity. National trends and early-season mosquito detections further inform the 26.5% odds on 35–49 cases, while lower probabilities on extremes reflect typical variability and resolution criteria tied to confirmed resident reports.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$12,010Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in mosquitoes across all New York City boroughs, with 1,568 positive pools detected by early September 2026—nearly double the prior year's pace—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Official NYC Health Department data show 13 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases year-to-date, consistent with transmission via Culex mosquitoes during the typical June–October season. Recent historical averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases among residents from 2021–2025, following a lower long-term median of 14, support trader consensus around this range amid ongoing peak activity and surveillance intensity. National trends and early-season mosquito detections further inform the 26.5% odds on 35–49 cases, while lower probabilities on extremes reflect typical variability and resolution criteria tied to confirmed resident reports.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volume
$12,010Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in mosquitoes across all New York City boroughs, with 1,568 positive pools detected by early September 2026—nearly double the prior year's pace—has positioned 20–34 neuroinvasive cases as the market's leading outcome at 50.5% implied probability. Official NYC Health Department data show 13 confirmed West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases year-to-date, consistent with transmission via Culex mosquitoes during the typical June–October season. Recent historical averages of 25–31 annual neuroinvasive cases among residents from 2021–2025, following a lower long-term median of 14, support trader consensus around this range amid ongoing peak activity and surveillance intensity. National trends and early-season mosquito detections further inform the 26.5% odds on 35–49 cases, while lower probabilities on extremes reflect typical variability and resolution criteria tied to confirmed resident reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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