The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
30 dic 2026
Sotto il 5,20%
80%
Sotto il 5,15%
72%
Sotto il 5,10%
63%
Sotto 5,05%
54%
Sotto il 5,00%
46%
Sotto il 4,95%
41%
Sotto il 4,90%
35%
Sotto il 4,80%
22%
Sotto il 4,60%
16%
$121 Vol.
Sotto il 5,20%
$0 Vol.
80%
Sotto il 5,15%
$0 Vol.
72%
Sotto il 5,10%
$60 Vol.
63%
Sotto 5,05%
$0 Vol.
54%
Sotto il 5,00%
$0 Vol.
46%
Sotto il 4,95%
$0 Vol.
41%
Sotto il 4,90%
$61 Vol.
35%
Sotto il 4,80%
$0 Vol.
22%
Sotto il 4,60%
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$121Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$121Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The 30-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 5.28-5.30%, faces upward pressure from elevated federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, heavy issuance to fund large deficits, and competing demand from AI-driven corporate borrowing. Hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, citing sticky PCE inflation around 3.7% and questioning forward guidance, combined with August's stronger-than-expected jobs report, have boosted odds of a September FOMC rate hike to about 60%. These factors have lifted real yields and term premia, with the yield near its highest levels since 2007. Upcoming CPI and PPI releases this week, followed by the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, will shape near-term expectations, while fiscal sustainability and inflation trends will influence how low yields can fall before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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