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icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?
Politica·Tassi Fed

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?

icon for Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?
Politica·Tassi Fed

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.4%

4,0% 13.8%

3,75% 3.8%

Polymarket

$6,888,773 Vol.

4,25% 54.9%

≥ 4,5% 29.4%

4,0% 13.8%

3,75% 3.8%

Polymarket

$6,888,773 Vol.

≤1,0%

$257,454 Vol.

<1%

1,25

$153,676 Vol.

<1%

1,5%

$151,449 Vol.

<1%

1,75%

$153,814 Vol.

<1%

2,0%

$269,410 Vol.

<1%

2,25%

$93,225 Vol.

<1%

2,5%

$179,954 Vol.

<1%

2,75%

$70,083 Vol.

<1%

3,0%

$500,181 Vol.

<1%

3,25%

$85,419 Vol.

<1%

3,5%

$206,199 Vol.

2%

3,75%

$538,512 Vol.

4%

4,0%

$1,373,683 Vol.

14%

4,25%

$441,467 Vol.

55%

≥ 4,5%

$2,414,247 Vol.

29%

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. Officials revised the median 2026 dot plot upward to 4.1% amid elevated PCE inflation forecasts of 3.7% and a still-solid labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Stronger economic data and supply-driven price pressures have reduced near-term easing prospects, with many participants signaling at least one additional quarter-point increase before December. This policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted the implied path higher than June estimates, aligning market pricing with limited further cuts and a higher terminal rate through 2027. Upcoming inflation releases and the December FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,888,773
Data di fine
9 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent FOMC projections and the September 16 rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. Officials revised the median 2026 dot plot upward to 4.1% amid elevated PCE inflation forecasts of 3.7% and a still-solid labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Stronger economic data and supply-driven price pressures have reduced near-term easing prospects, with many participants signaling at least one additional quarter-point increase before December. This policy tightening under Chair Kevin Warsh has shifted the implied path higher than June estimates, aligning market pricing with limited further cuts and a higher terminal rate through 2027. Upcoming inflation releases and the December FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.

This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.

The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,888,773
Data di fine
9 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x2F5e3684c...

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 15 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "4,25%" a 55%, seguito da "≥ 4,5%" a 29%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 55¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 55% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $6.9 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jan 12, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 15 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" è "4,25%" a 55%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 55% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "≥ 4,5%" a 29%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.