Recent U.S. jobs data showing 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% on CPI and PCE measures, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on price stability, combined with Middle East-related energy supply risks and a June dot plot median projecting a 3.8% funds rate by year-end, have shifted trader sentiment. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a September 25-basis-point hike, supporting the 73.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 increase. The upcoming September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
74% probabilità
$8,781,680 Vol.
$8,781,680 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
74% probabilità
$8,781,680 Vol.
$8,781,680 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. jobs data showing 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% on CPI and PCE measures, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on price stability, combined with Middle East-related energy supply risks and a June dot plot median projecting a 3.8% funds rate by year-end, have shifted trader sentiment. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a September 25-basis-point hike, supporting the 73.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 increase. The upcoming September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,781,680Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. jobs data showing 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% on CPI and PCE measures, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on price stability, combined with Middle East-related energy supply risks and a June dot plot median projecting a 3.8% funds rate by year-end, have shifted trader sentiment. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a September 25-basis-point hike, supporting the 73.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 increase. The upcoming September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,781,680Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. jobs data showing 162,000 August payroll gains and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated inflation readings near 3.4-3.7% on CPI and PCE measures, have reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing “work to do” on price stability, combined with Middle East-related energy supply risks and a June dot plot median projecting a 3.8% funds rate by year-end, have shifted trader sentiment. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a September 25-basis-point hike, supporting the 73.5% implied probability of at least one 2026 increase. The upcoming September 11 CPI release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting remain key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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