Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1% probabilità
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1% probabilità
$30,017 Vol.
$30,017 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,017Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,017Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent public backing of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, despite the September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate to a 3.75–4% target range, anchors the 98.8% market-implied probability against any firing attempt. Warsh, Trump’s own nominee sworn in earlier this year, has prioritized inflation control amid persistent above-target readings and robust labor data, yet the president has deflected blame to the broader board while affirming confidence in his appointee. Supreme Court precedent reinforcing central-bank independence, including the Cook ruling that raised the bar for removals, further limits legal avenues. Tail risks remain narrow and would require a sharp deterioration in Warsh’s credibility or an unexpected policy clash severe enough to override the personal and institutional constraints now in place.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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