Elevated inflation projections and a hawkish policy tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July meetings amid core PCE inflation forecasts revised up to 3.3% and a median 2026 rate projection lifted to 3.8%, with nine officials seeing at least one hike this year. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have supported oil prices and reinforced the restrictive stance, while the labor market remains resilient near 4.1-4.3% unemployment. With the September 15-16 meeting now pricing a roughly 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike per futures and prediction platforms, the “Other” outcome dominates at 78% implied probability as traders assign only 21% odds to a full pause sequence and negligible chance to any cut path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOther 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$865,126 Vol.
$865,126 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Other
78%
Other 78%
Pause–Pause–Pause 21%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$865,126 Vol.
$865,126 Vol.
15 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$332,899 Vol.
21%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$102,261 Vol.
<1%
Other
$374,090 Vol.
78%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation projections and a hawkish policy tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July meetings amid core PCE inflation forecasts revised up to 3.3% and a median 2026 rate projection lifted to 3.8%, with nine officials seeing at least one hike this year. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have supported oil prices and reinforced the restrictive stance, while the labor market remains resilient near 4.1-4.3% unemployment. With the September 15-16 meeting now pricing a roughly 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike per futures and prediction platforms, the “Other” outcome dominates at 78% implied probability as traders assign only 21% odds to a full pause sequence and negligible chance to any cut path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$865,126Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation projections and a hawkish policy tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July meetings amid core PCE inflation forecasts revised up to 3.3% and a median 2026 rate projection lifted to 3.8%, with nine officials seeing at least one hike this year. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have supported oil prices and reinforced the restrictive stance, while the labor market remains resilient near 4.1-4.3% unemployment. With the September 15-16 meeting now pricing a roughly 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike per futures and prediction platforms, the “Other” outcome dominates at 78% implied probability as traders assign only 21% odds to a full pause sequence and negligible chance to any cut path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$865,126Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation projections and a hawkish policy tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh are anchoring trader sentiment in the Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) market. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July meetings amid core PCE inflation forecasts revised up to 3.3% and a median 2026 rate projection lifted to 3.8%, with nine officials seeing at least one hike this year. Geopolitical pressures from Middle East tensions have supported oil prices and reinforced the restrictive stance, while the labor market remains resilient near 4.1-4.3% unemployment. With the September 15-16 meeting now pricing a roughly 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike per futures and prediction platforms, the “Other” outcome dominates at 78% implied probability as traders assign only 21% odds to a full pause sequence and negligible chance to any cut path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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