Recent Canadian CPI prints hovering near 3% in mid-2026, driven primarily by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, have anchored trader focus on the 2.5–2.9% band for annual 2026 inflation at 35.1% implied probability. Bank of Canada projections anticipate headline easing to around 2.5% through the second half of the year as oil prices moderate along futures curves, while core measures remain near the 2% target and show limited spillover. Persistent energy effects and potential U.S. tariff pass-through introduce upside risks, yet well-anchored expectations and subdued services inflation support the market-implied clustering in the 2.0–3.4% range. The next CPI release on September 14 and the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report represent key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCanada Inflazione annuale 2026
2,5–2,9% 35.2%
2,0–2,4% 25.1%
3,5-3,9% 17.7%
3,0-3,4% 17.5%
$40,855 Vol.
$40,855 Vol.
<1,0%
1%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
4%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5–2,9%
35%
3,0-3,4%
18%
3,5-3,9%
18%
4,0%+
3%
2,5–2,9% 35.2%
2,0–2,4% 25.1%
3,5-3,9% 17.7%
3,0-3,4% 17.5%
$40,855 Vol.
$40,855 Vol.
<1,0%
1%
1,0–1,4%
5%
1,5–1,9%
4%
2,0–2,4%
25%
2,5–2,9%
35%
3,0-3,4%
18%
3,5-3,9%
18%
4,0%+
3%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Canadian CPI prints hovering near 3% in mid-2026, driven primarily by elevated gasoline prices amid Middle East supply disruptions, have anchored trader focus on the 2.5–2.9% band for annual 2026 inflation at 35.1% implied probability. Bank of Canada projections anticipate headline easing to around 2.5% through the second half of the year as oil prices moderate along futures curves, while core measures remain near the 2% target and show limited spillover. Persistent energy effects and potential U.S. tariff pass-through introduce upside risks, yet well-anchored expectations and subdued services inflation support the market-implied clustering in the 2.0–3.4% range. The next CPI release on September 14 and the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report represent key near-term catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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