Trump's brief May 2026 remarks suggesting Venezuela as the 51st state, following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and installation of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan officials citing sovereignty and independence. No congressional legislation has advanced, and Article IV requirements for admission—majority approval in both chambers plus Venezuelan consent via referendum—remain unmet. Recent oil and security arrangements reflect U.S. influence without formal annexation. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" based on these structural barriers and lack of momentum. Shifts could theoretically arise from sustained bilateral negotiations, a Venezuelan vote favoring union, or congressional action, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Venezuela become 51st state?
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
2% chance
$393,891 Vol.
$393,891 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$393,891 Vol.
$393,891 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's brief May 2026 remarks suggesting Venezuela as the 51st state, following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and installation of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan officials citing sovereignty and independence. No congressional legislation has advanced, and Article IV requirements for admission—majority approval in both chambers plus Venezuelan consent via referendum—remain unmet. Recent oil and security arrangements reflect U.S. influence without formal annexation. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" based on these structural barriers and lack of momentum. Shifts could theoretically arise from sustained bilateral negotiations, a Venezuelan vote favoring union, or congressional action, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$393,891End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's brief May 2026 remarks suggesting Venezuela as the 51st state, following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and installation of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan officials citing sovereignty and independence. No congressional legislation has advanced, and Article IV requirements for admission—majority approval in both chambers plus Venezuelan consent via referendum—remain unmet. Recent oil and security arrangements reflect U.S. influence without formal annexation. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" based on these structural barriers and lack of momentum. Shifts could theoretically arise from sustained bilateral negotiations, a Venezuelan vote favoring union, or congressional action, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$393,891End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's brief May 2026 remarks suggesting Venezuela as the 51st state, following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and installation of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, prompted immediate rejection from Venezuelan officials citing sovereignty and independence. No congressional legislation has advanced, and Article IV requirements for admission—majority approval in both chambers plus Venezuelan consent via referendum—remain unmet. Recent oil and security arrangements reflect U.S. influence without formal annexation. Traders assign 97.7% probability to "No" based on these structural barriers and lack of momentum. Shifts could theoretically arise from sustained bilateral negotiations, a Venezuelan vote favoring union, or congressional action, though none appear imminent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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