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icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
World·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

icon for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
World·Germany

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

16% chance
Polymarket

$1,016,829 Vol.

16% chance
Polymarket

$1,016,829 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Friedrich Merz leads a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government formed after the 2025 federal election, with the next Bundestag vote scheduled no earlier than 2029. Recent AfD gains in the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election have highlighted coalition strains and low federal approval ratings, prompting SPD partners to seek adjustments to pension and reform measures while internal CDU voices express unease. Merz has rejected resignation calls, reaffirmed commitment to the reform agenda, and emphasized institutional stability, with no procedural mechanisms or majority support emerging for early government collapse or a no-confidence vote. Traders price the low probability of his departure before 2027 on the absence of viable alternatives and the high costs of triggering snap elections amid shared weakness across mainstream parties.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$1,016,829
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Friedrich Merz leads a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government formed after the 2025 federal election, with the next Bundestag vote scheduled no earlier than 2029. Recent AfD gains in the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election have highlighted coalition strains and low federal approval ratings, prompting SPD partners to seek adjustments to pension and reform measures while internal CDU voices express unease. Merz has rejected resignation calls, reaffirmed commitment to the reform agenda, and emphasized institutional stability, with no procedural mechanisms or majority support emerging for early government collapse or a no-confidence vote. Traders price the low probability of his departure before 2027 on the absence of viable alternatives and the high costs of triggering snap elections amid shared weakness across mainstream parties.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$1,016,829
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.